| 04/01/2022 |
The Day Ahead contract increased by £48.68/MWh, closing at £165.83/tonne on Friday as a result of falling temperatures, but gains were capped as wind forecasts improved. Power prices across the rest of the curve continued to fall as week 1 temperatures were forecast to be at seasonal norms of 9 Degrees Celsius, while National Grid wind forecasts are averaging above 10GW for week 1 and 2. |
| 05/01/2022 |
Reverse flows via Mallnow and reduced Velke flows yesterday added bullishness across the curve, whilst colder temperatures for this week added to bullish sentiment. Temperatures look to increase back to above seasonal normal for week 2 and increasing LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the UK added some bearish pressure to the Month Ahead contract. Tightness is expected to continue into Summer 22 as European storage stocks will be depleted, and Nordstream 2 is not expected to be operational at the earliest by mid-2022. |
| 06/01/2022 |
Power prices tracked increases in gas prices due to an unplanned outage at Oseberg which ended this morning at 6am, and continued reverse Russian flows via Mallnow. An unplanned outage Chooz 2 the French nuclear reactor that was extended from 24th January to 20th April, causing prices to increase in both the UK and France. Colder temperatures caused the day ahead price to increase, whilst wind forecasts are expected to increase from 4GW to 14GW today. In other news the Business Secretary will be meeting with utilities today, to discuss possible cuts to Value Added Tax charged on bills, and loans to help suppliers delay some of April’s SVT price cap increases which will be announced on 7th February |
| 07/01/2022 |
The day ahead contract fell as a result of high wind forecasts averaging 11GW on Friday, causing gas to power demand to fall by 20mcm. Temperatures for the remainder of this week are forecast to be below seasonal normal. The week ahead contract was supported by below seasonal normal wind forecasts, despite milder temperatures. The rest of the curve followed bullish gas prices amid increased reverse flows via Mallnow and delays in LNG arrivals. |
| 10/01/2022 |
A fall in renewable supply by 33%, down to 6.7GW, caused the day ahead contract to increase by £21.33/MWh. Russian gas flows via Mallnow have continued to be reversed since 21st December and were flowing to Poland at 162GWh/d. Flows via Velke has fallen by 33% since 31st December to 290GWh/d on Friday, adding bullish pressure in the prompt. High volumes of LNG arriving to the UK continues to be bearish to the front month, whilst both the Summer ‘22 and Winter ‘22 contract fell as a result of a possible increase in gas production from the Groningen gas field based in the Netherlands. |
| 11/01/2022 |
Power prices on the day ahead were supported by lower wind output, expected to average 6.3GW on Tuesday, and below seasonal normal temperatures for the week. The front month contract fell as increased LNG cargoes have been confirmed to arrive in the UK. Both EUA and UKA Dec’22 carbon contracts fell significantly, providing bearish pressure to the rest of the curve. |
| 12/01/2022 |
Power prices fell tracking gas prices despite low wind forecasts expected to remain at an average of 5.7GW this week. Temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal normal which could add some support later and increase demand for gas. Gas prices fell yesterday due to an increase in LNG arrivals. |
| 13/01/2022 |
UK power contracts plummeted along with European gas markets as a much improved LNG supply outlook has cooled concerns over gas storage levels. Risks still remain in the market, with weather and gas supply to remain key drivers |
| 14/01/2022 |
UK Power followed swings in the gas market yesterday where the rally at the front could not be sustained in the further-dated contracts. The Feb’22 contract rose £12.62/MWh by late afternoon with strong buy demand returning to the market amid a week of previous bearish sentiment. Far-curve contracts did soften as additional LNG cargo scheduling eased the pressure on continental storage rates and S22/W22 prices. |
| 17/01/2022 |
Metdesk wind forecasts for next week were revised down by 0.5GW on Friday, to a well below seasonal normal at 7GW. As a result the week ahead product rose by £10.82/MWh to £235.75/MWh. Further dated contracts followed both gas and carbon prices. Some of the bullishness came after a revision in French nuclear output for 2022 by c.10%, adding greater risk of market tightness over the coming months, and putting more pressure on gas storage. |
| 18/01/2022 |
Power prices followed gas prices down yesterday, as above seasonal normal temperatures are forecasted for week 4 according to Metdesk and high LNG arrivals weighed on prices. Wind forecasts are well below seasonal normal for the next two weeks with a brief surge on Wednesday to 12.8GW. |
| 19/01/2022 |
The day ahead contract fell in line with an expected increase of wind, increasing from 5GW to 12GW. The rest of the power curve followed bullish movements in both oil and gas markets. French interconnector IFA will continue to export as bidding zone prices are higher on the Continent due to lower French nuclear output. |
| 20/01/2022 |
Low winds continue to increase prices on the day ahead by £11.83/MWh. The rest of the curve followed a bearish gas market due to mild weather and high LNG flows, increased production from an outage at Kollsness. |
| 21/01/2022 |
Seasonal normal temperatures and high levels of LNG have kept pressure on gas and power contracts, however bullish fundamentals remain as price risk has been pushed to Summer’22. Nordstream 2 is not expected to be certified as tensions rise between Russia and Ukraine and storage facilities will be extremely depleted. Further dated contracts increased in line with carbon and oil. |
| 24/01/2022 |
The day ahead contract increased by £86.25/MWh as National Grid forecasted wind to average around 1.8GW. Despite strong LNG arrivals and seasonal normal temperatures forecasted for week 4, the power curve increased tracking bullish movements in the gas market. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia worsened causing concerns to gas and oil supply disruptions. A decision from the Secretary of State on a 2GW interconnector between Portsmouth and Normandy proposed by Aquind to be built by the start of 2024 was rejected due to the urban location in the UK. |
| 25/01/2022 |
Low wind added bullish pressure to the week ahead contract, but was offset by the influx of LNG. Potential triad calls for 6pm yesterday and a National Grid issued a capacity market notice, but was later cancelled which was highly influenced by an IFA1 outage on the within day market. The rest of the curve followed a bullish gas market due to rising tensions between the Ukraine and Russia, particularly increasing the price risk to Summer’22 and Winter’22. |
| 26/01/2022 |
The week ahead contract fell by £6/MWh as wind forecasts remain at seasonal norms and temperatures are above seasonal norms. LNG supply remains strong for the next two weeks, however seasonal contracts increased due to rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The market expects gas supply constraints if Russia invades Ukraine and Nordstream 2 is unlikely to be certified, adding tightness to Winter’22. |
| 27/01/2022 |
Power prices fell on the near curve as wind forecasts are expected to average 11GW in the next two weeks, whilst temperatures are forecast above seasonal normal adding to bearish sentiment. Both low wind in France and nuclear strikes continue to hit production causing the UK to export interconnector flows. Further dated products remain bullish from rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and a bullish carbon market. |
| 28/01/2022 |
Power The day ahead contract increased as a result of low wind and as the IFA interconnector will remain at 500M until 29th January. The week ahead contract fell as LNG arrivals remain strong and temperatures will remain above seasonal normal. Further dated contracts increased as a result of raising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. An outage on Torness Reactor 1 added some bullish pressure and is expected to return on 6th February |
| 31/01/2022 |
Mild weather and high wind generation to start February weighed heavily on near-curve spark spreads as margins are expected to be more comfortable. This offset losses in gas for February and March contracts, with outright power closing down on the day. Contracts out from S22 all saw gains however as geopolitical concerns continue to add risk to the market, whilst colder weather in Asia ould start to divert some LNG cargoes away from Europe in March |
| 01/02/2022 |
Sharp losses were seen on contracts out to W22 amid above seasonal normal temperatures and wind forecasts, coupled with high LNG supply which has eased concerns over European gas storage. |
| 02/02/2022 |
Mild and windy weather continued to weigh on UK power, with contracts out to W22 losing over £15/MWh. Key risks remain with low gas storage levels and French nuclear unavailability, however demand is expected to be subdued for at least the next 2 weeks. |
| 03/02/2022 |
UK power contracts rebounded along with both gas and carbon markets despite continued mild temperature forecasts over the coming weeks. Geopolitical tensions and cold in Asia still remain key risks to the gas market, whilst strong technical buying supported carbon. |
| 04/02/2022 |
UK power contracts followed up with equivalent gains in gas, with a revision down in temperature forecasts and concerns over gas supply from Russia and LNG going forward adding some risk premium |
| 07/02/2022 |
Temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild over the next couple weeks, whilst above seasonal normal wind forecasts capped prices. Low Russian flows continue to add bullish pressure to gas prices and additional compliance buying added bullish sentiment to the UKA Dec’22 contract, subsequently lifting power prices. |
| 08/02/2022 |
The Day Ahead remained fairly flat at £165/MWh as wind forecasts are expected to rise by 15% from Monday’s average of 13.2GW. Strong winds and milder temperatures caused bearish pressure to the week ahead contract. The UK remains a net importer of French power, due to low nuclear availability. Price risk for summer will continue to track volatility in the gas market, as tightness and the energy market crisis continues. |
| 09/02/2022 |
Power and gas prices increased at the beginning of the day as a result of a revision down of French nuclear availability for 2022 down by 4.5GW on average following the unexpected outage of seven reactors on 7th February. Output could reach 315TWh at best in 2022, compared to 400TWh in the past few years. The day closed down for all power contracts as temperatures remain above seasonal normal, whilst wind generation for the next two weeks remains strong and LNG arrivals continue to add bearish pressure in the short term. The exception was the day ahead contract which strengthened due to lower wind margins |
| 10/02/2022 |
The day ahead contract eased due to a minor increase in wind forecasts to 11.5GW. The rest of the curve fell however amid strong wind forecasts, milder temperatures and continued LNG arrivals. The UK remains an exporter of power to France as a result of low nuclear availability causing a tighter French system by 11.4GW for Thursday. Additional bearishness came from falling carbon prices as the EU aims to curb prices. In other news the government announced they would bring the Contract for Difference auction forward to March 2023, and increase the frequency to year auctions in the aim to meet the climate targets for Offshore wind currently at 40GW by 2030. |
| 11/02/2022 |
The Day Ahead contract rose by £10.50/MWh yesterday as wind output was expected to drop today. High wind forecast and mild weather forecasts became more confident over the coming week, causing the week ahead contract to fall by £7.07/MWh. The rest of the curve followed prompt bearish signals and as LNG remains high |
| 14/02/2022 |
Mild temperatures and well above seasonal normal forecasts for week 7 estimated at 13.5GW capped prices on the near curve, partially offsetting the current crisis in Ukraine. A 660MW reactor at Heysham 2 nuclear plant was due to start ramping up on Wednesday after a planned outage, reaching almost full capacity by Thursday night. Summer 23 and Winter 23 contracts both rose in the morning after French nuclear output estimates for 2023 were revised down from 340-370TWh to 300-330TWh |
| 15/02/2022 |
Power prices tracked increasing movements to gas and oil markets due to the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Whilst wind forecasts fell slightly for this week, they still remain at 12.1GW averaging for the remainder of the week, and temperatures remain mild |
| 16/02/2022 |
Power prices fell across the curve, tracking both oil and gas prices as Russia and Ukrainian tension eased. Wind forecasts for week 8 remain high, averaging 11.9GW, whilst temperatures will be mild. The UK T-1 capacity market for 2022-2023 delivery cleared in the first round at £70-75/kW per year, according to National Grid ESO, a new record high |
| 17/02/2022 |
Wind forecasts for week 8 and 9 averaging 11.5GW and 11GW, whilst the day ahead is expected to reach 13GW on Thursday adding bearishness in the week ahead and day ahead contracts. Whilst the rest of the curve tracked bullish moves in both gas and power. |
| 18/02/2022 |
Supply concerns in the gas market amid rising geopolitical tensions continued to add some premium to power prices, however mild and windy weather forecast over the coming week has alleviated some concerns. |
| 21/02/2022 |
High UK wind caused the day ahead contract to fall by £20/MWh on Friday, whilst the week ahead contract increased by £1.70/MWh as temperatures were revised cooler towards seasonal norms. The rest of the curve fell as a result of bearish gas prices, despite Russian and Ukrainian tensions. The power system was 68MW short on Friday, as more than 165,000 Britain’s lost power during the storm. The central tower, one of three at Grain Power Station near Rochester, Kent, chimney collapsed during Storm Euince. Unit 6 will remain offline until this Wednesday, however unit 7 will be offline to May. |
| 22/02/2022 |
Power prices increased on the near curve as gas rose due to delays in LNG and a temperature fall to seasonal norms. The rest of the curve fell, taking direction from gas as some bearish pressure from gas as President Macron aimed to deescalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine. |
| 23/02/2022 |
Power prices followed volatility in the gas market, particularly in Summer 22 and Winter 22 as Nord Stream 2 will not be certified and a Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead to gas and oil supply disruptions |
| 24/02/2022 |
UK power contracts jumped in line with European gas after a further escalation in Russia/Ukraine tensions and concerns the current gas crisis could worsen. |
| 25/02/2022 |
The front month contract rose £50.54/MWh yesterday as a result of Russia going to war with Ukraine, which could cause supply disruptions to gas supplies. Lower wind over the weekend, and below seasonal normal temperature forecasts for week 10, averaging 8.5GW, added further support to the front of the curve. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate between seasonal and 1 to 2 degrees below seasonal norms. |
| 26/02/2022 |
The day ahead contract increased by £62/MWh as a result of low wind forecasts, downgraded for week 9 by 1.9GW, whilst temperature forecasts are below seasonal normal for week 9. Solar is estimated to be above seasonal normal, offsetting the impact of wind. Power prices followed both gas and oil prices; however, carbon provided some support as it tracked stock and equity markets that had recovered slightly. |
| 28/02/2022 |
The day ahead contract increased by £62/MWh as a result of low wind forecasts, downgraded for week 9 by 1.9GW, whilst temperature forecasts are below seasonal normal for week 9. Solar is estimated to be above seasonal normal, offsetting the impact of wind. Power prices followed both gas and oil prices; however, carbon provided some support as it tracked stock and equity markets that had recovered slightly. |
| 01/03/2022 |
Power prices rose in line with gas and oil markets, however carbon prices capped gains as the correlation between the commodities worsens. The weak ahead contract fell by £27.49/MWh as a result of a revision up in wind forecasts to above seasonal norms, averaging 11GW according to Metdesk. Testing flows on the 1GW ElecLink cable between the UK and France reached max capacity from 11:30-2pm. |
| 02/03/2022 |
UK power contracts continued to surge higher along with gas amid spiralling supply fears with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| 03/03/2022 |
UK power contracts tracked higher with a strong surge in European gas hubs amid fears that Russian gas could stop flowing, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine entering its 7th day. Russian supply disruption is yet to be seen, however this could happen at any moment, whilst additional support stemmed from cold weather expected over the next week. |
| 04/03/2022 |
Thin trading was seen through Thursday amid the high volatility seen across European gas markets. Although Russian gas flows remain strong, there are growing fears supply could be cut. |
| 07/03/2022 |
Power prices took direction from both oil and gas markets off concerns the Russian energy sector could be hit with supply sanctions. In addition, LNG supply has come under pressure as resistance from dockers to refuse the unloading of Russian cargos in Europe is spreading, most notable at the Grain facility in the UK. There are currently 5 Russian cargoes expected to arrive in North West Europe although their final destination remains uncertain. On the week ahead contract prices rose by £79.15/MWh as a result of a downwards revision in temperatures for week 10 to below seasonal normal according to MetDesk. Heysham 1 was delayed in ramping up on Friday to 16th March of 610MW, adding bullishness to the week ahead contract. |
| 08/03/2022 |
UK power contracts saw large swings in thin trading yesterday as they took direction from European gas hubs amid the immediate risk to Russian as supplies |
| 09/03/2022 |
Temperatures have increased to seasonal norms for the remainder of the week, whilst wind forecasts are expected to remain strong at 10.6GW on average for week 10. However power contracts increased as a result of bullish gas prices reacting from potential reduced flows through Nord Stream 1 and as LNG gas disruptions continue. The Summer’22 contract continues to be a premium to Winter’22. European storage levels are currently at 26.96% full. |
| 10/03/2022 |
Power prices followed both gas and oil markets down amid lessening concerns of Russian supply disruption on markets, however key risks remain. Wind generation is forecasted to be above seasonal normal at 7.8GW for week 11. Temperatures are above seasonal normal, adding to bearishness in the week ahead contract. The seasonal 2022 contracts narrowed as a result of potential de-escalations as discussions continue between leaders. |
| 11/03/2022 |
Power contracts tracked movements in the gas market as a result of profit taking, whilst negotiations between Russia and Ukraine could result in de-escalation. Above seasonal normal temperatures and wind forecasts provided additional bearishness to the near curve. The Day ahead contract was pressured as a result of wind forecasts expected to reach 15GW on Friday |
| 14/03/2022 |
Power prices rose on far dated contracts due to a worsening situation in Ukraine, whilst the G7 counties end normal trade relations as well as the EU aiming to reduce Russian gas imports by two thirds. On the near curve below seasonal normal wind forecasts caused the week ahead contract to rise by £10.67/tonne. IFA1 interconnector will reduce to 0 between 14-21March as it undergoes testing. |
| 15/03/2022 |
Hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine and unwillingness from either the EU or Russia to reduce gas flows to Europe weighed heavily on gas and power contracts yesterday, whilst additional pressure stemmed from mild weather forecast over the coming week |
| 16/03/2022 |
UK power contracts rebounded slightly yesterday with continued concerns over European gas supply over the coming months. |
| 17/03/2022 |
UK power prices plummeted again yesterday afternoon amid weakness in gas as the market remained optimistic over Russian/Ukraine peace talks. |
| 18/03/2022 |
Continued concerns over Russian gas supply caused gas and power markets to rebound yesterday, however markets remain very illiquid and volatile. |
| 21/03/2022 |
Mild weather, strong LNG supply and stable Russian gas flows helped weigh on UK power contracts on Friday, however the market remain cautious amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| 22/03/2022 |
UK power tracked down with gas on Monday with mild weather and no change to Russian flows reducing risk premium in the market, however key risks remain. |
| 23/03/2022 |
UK power tracked higher with NBP gas on Tuesday, with a Norwegian field outage and low wind generation across the continent countering bearishness from the current mild weather. |
| 24/03/2022 |
UK power rocketed higher along with equivalent gas products after Putin said Russia will switch gas sales to roubles for 'unfriendly' countries, throwing Russian gas supplies to Europe in doubt. Additional bullishness fed from low wind generation and cold weather forecast next week. |
| 25/03/2022 |
Statements from the US and Qatar to prioritise LNG supply to Europe this year sent gas and power contracts plummeting before the close, however significant supply risks remain in the market. |
| 28/03/2022 |
Concerns over Russian gas supply and cold weather later this week led to a rebound in gas and power contracts. Putin told Gazprom and Russia’s central bank to prepare to switch to roubles for natural gas exports by March 31. |
| 29/03/2022 |
Strong LNG supply expected this summer and steady Russian gas flows last week helped price out more risk from the market, with S22 power tumbling c.£14/MWh. Further losses were curtailed by cold weather forecast this week. |
| 30/03/2022 |
Worries over Russian gas flows, coupled with cold weather across Europe this week helped lift UK power contracts, however further gains were limited as talks progressed between Russia and Ukraine. |
| 31/03/2022 |
Plummeting temperatures across Europe and rising concerns over immediate Russian gas supplies caused a surge in prices, with the front-month gas contract yet again hitting 300p/th, whilst S22 power reached over £250/MWh. Germany triggered an emergency plan to manage gas supplies on Wednesday under which Europe's largest economy could ration usage if a standoff over a Russian demand to pay for fuel with roubles disrupts or halts supplies |
| 01/04/2022 |
Russian gas supply uncertainty caused many trader to stay away from the power market yesterday, with liquidity particularly low. Market participants are concerned Russian gas supply could halt over the coming days, with Putin stating in a Russian TV announcement that he signed a decree ensuring countries buying gas from Russia must pay in roubles, or their contracts would not be honoured. Cold weather and exports to France has also added value to the near-curve. |
| 04/04/2022 |
Curve contracts crashed off late Friday with the threat of an immediate halt in Russian gas supply subsiding, after the Kremlin stated payment requests will only be due later this month. Cold weather and low French nuclear availability caused the France Monday baseload price to rocket over €700/MWh. |
| 05/04/2022 |
High wind forecasts for week 14, averaging 9GW, and mild weather caused prices to fall on the front of the curve. Nuclear availability in France was revised lower causing the 2GW IFA to flow to France. |
| 06/04/2022 |
Power prices continued to fall on the near curve due to high wind and a rising temperatures next week. Volatility is likely to continue as NATO leaders are planning to meet today to release a new wave of sanctions on Russia, condemning their war crimes in Ukraine. Yesterday, European coal prices increased by $43/tonne as the EU bans importing Russian coal, providing some support to the TTF. Russian coal has typically been of good quality improving the efficiency of plants, however companies will have to source coal from countries with longer lead times such as Australia. |
| 07/04/2022 |
The weekend wind forecast was revised below seasonal normal down to 5.7GW adding some bullishness whereas the Day Ahead fells as wind forecasts for today were well above 14.9GW. The UK has been a net exporter to France as a result of low nuclear availability. Winter 22 took direction from rising gas prices. |
| 08/04/2022 |
The day ahead price rose by £29.67/MWh as a result of colder weather and lower wind forecasts, however temperatures for next week are forecasted to be above seasonal normal weighing on the week ahead contract. The curve took direction from the gas market with bearishness seen on the front and limited movement further out. |
| 11/04/2022 |
Power prices tracked similar movements to gas prices. Temperatures remain above seasonal normal at 11.5 degrees offsetting wind forecasts which are expected at 7.6GW for week 15. LNG supply remains strong adding to bearish pressure on the front of the curve, whilst Hartlepool 2 will return to service. |
| 12/04/2022 |
Continued bearishness was seen on the prompt amid warmer weather, whilst wind is expected to be well below seasonal average this week. Both Heysham 2 reactor 7 returned to service earlier than expected and Hartlepool is due to come online providing additional bearishness the front week, as well as strong LNG arrivals. Further dated contracts continue to remain bullish as the EU looks to phase out Russian gas. |
| 13/04/2022 |
Wind forecasts for this week were revised down by 20% to 4GW, adding support to the prompt. Some offset came from warmer temperatures above seasonal normal. The EU confirmed coal imports will be banned from 10th August causing coal prices to rise. |
| 14/04/2022 |
Low wind forecasts and low Russian flows caused bullish pressure to the near curve. Further dated contracts continued to add value amid concerns the current tight gas market will remain through 2023. |
| 19/04/2022 |
Higher wind over the weekend, averaging 7.6GW, pressured prices on the day ahead contract, whilst the front week contract fell as temperatures averaged above seasonal normal. The rest of the curve followed down with gas prices amid slightly higher Russian flows and a possibility that Russia will continue to accept payment of their gas in Euros |
| 20/04/2022 |
On the curves, contracts are slightly up this morning on the back of colder temperatures ahead combined with the beginning of the gas injection season. Wind generation for next week is expected to be below average which could boost gas-for-power offtake. Brent Crude prices rose this morning on the back of weakening Russian output and Germany saying they want to stop all Russian oil imports by the end of the year. In addition, Libya declares force majeure at two oil ports. |
| 21/04/2022 |
High wind forecasts added bearish pressure to the day ahead contract, whilst the week ahead contract rose as a result of below seasonal normal wind forecasts and seasonal normal temperatures. A rally in the carbon market added bullish pressure to further dated contracts. Further dated contracts also tracked up with movements in the gas market amid concerns that Russia may not accept payments for Russian gas in Euros. |
| 22/04/2022 |
A tighter gas market expected next week with cooler weather, Norwegian outages and continued low Russian flows helped lift prices along the UK power curve yesterday. The far curve continues to surge upwards amid concerns the phase out of Russian gas will cause a tight market for years to come |
| 25/04/2022 |
Power prices retracted after large gains on Thursday. Temperatures for the remainder of week 16 remained above seasonal normal at 11.5 degrees whilst wind forecasts jumped to well above seasonal normal at 9.6GW. Temperatures for week 17 are forecasted to drop to below seasonal normal at 9 degrees on average, whilst wind forecasts are well below seasonal normal forecasted on average to be 3.8GW. Strong LNG arrivals continue to add bearish pressure to the near curve, as well as confirmation that the UK would still be providing payments to Gazprombank in Euros until 31st May. Lower Norwegian flows added some bullish pressure to an unplanned outage at Kollsness |
| 26/04/2022 |
Temperatures this week are forecasted to be slightly below seasonal normal at 9 degrees whilst wind forecasts are expected to be well below seasonal normal at 3.6GW. Power prices took direction from gas prices amid strong LNG arrivals, whilst no governmental sanctions yet on Russian gas either by Germany or the UK have reduced the immediate risk. However, there is significant uncertainty around what the next wave of sanctions will entail. The far curve took some direction from falling oil price |
| 27/04/2022 |
Low wind forecasts added support to prices on the day ahead and week ahead contracts, whilst May fell as a result of increased LNG. The far curve was supported by concerns that Russia would cut flows to Poland and Bulgaria, as well as supported by bullish carbon prices. |
| 28/04/2022 |
Power prices rallied in line with gas prices for Winter ’22 as a result of a cut of gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria. The day contact rose as a result of low wind generation. The near curve remains bearish due to strong LNG arrivals. |
| 29/04/2022 |
Temperatures in week 18 rose to above seasonal norms to 12.6 degrees adding bearish pressure to the week ahead contract, but partially offset by well below seasonal normal wind forecasts at 4GW. Prices across the curve fell back down as some companies are complying with Russia’s demand to pay for gas in Roubles. |
| 03/05/2022 |
Power prices fell on seasonal products in line with gas prices as energy companies seek clarity from the EU in terms of the conversion mechanism Russia has setup with Gazprombank to convert Euros to Roubles for gas exports. Temperatures for Week18 remain above seasonal normal, averaging 12 degrees, adding bearish pressure to the week ahead contract, however partially offset by below seasonal wind forecasts averaging 3.4GW. |
| 04/05/2022 |
Mild week 18 temperature forecasts is likely to curb domestic demand and added some pressure to prices. The winter’22 contract rose in line with gas however as the rouble payment scheme would breach existing EU sanctions and could risk future Russian flows. Rising carbon prices added bullish pressure to the far curve. |
| 05/05/2022 |
Forecasted temperatures in the UK are expected to rise well above seasonal normal for week 19 set to average, 15.5 degrees for the week. Whilst wind forecasts rise to seasonal norms, expecting to average 5.8GW proving placing bearish pressure to the near curve. The far curve power prices took direction from a bullish gas and oil market. |
| 06/05/2022 |
Power prices tracked similar movements in gas prices as forecasted temperatures for week19 remain above seasonal normal at 15.5degrees and wind forecasts are estimated to be 6.4GW. The far curve power prices took direction from a bullish gas and oil market. |
| 09/05/2022 |
Power prices were bearish on Friday tracking movements in the gas market, milder temperatures and strong LNG sendout. Carbon prices rallied with oil adding some support to the far curve. |
| 10/05/2022 |
Power prices continued to sell off yesterday as a result of warmer weather and strong LNG imports. Metdesk forecasts shows temperatures rising to 16 degrees for week 20, well above seasonal average, however wind forecasts are at seasonal norms of 5.GW. The 1.4GW North Sea Link will be on outage between 10-13 May due to testing. |
| 11/05/2022 |
Power prices tracked movements in gas prices yesterday as warm weather and strong LNG supply caused prices on the near curve to fall. A rally was seen late afternoon however as a result of Ukraine warning they would stop entry of Russian flows at Sokhranovka. The far curve took direction from a bearish oil market. In other news, it was announced that the UK will extend the price cap for energy bills beyond 2023 aiming to support households with rising costs of energy |
| 12/05/2022 |
UK power contracts followed up with gas yesterday after Russian flows to Europe fell by c.300GWh/d, stoking fears that further supply could be curtailed. The prompt remains weak with strong LNG imports, coupled with mild and windy weather. |
| 13/05/2022 |
A sharp rise in European gas contracts fed through the UK power after Russia sanctioned several companies, putting future gas supply at risk. Liquidity was thin through the day as the market awaited further clarity. The W22 BL contract was valued over £270 at its high, however closed at c.£256/MWh. |
| 16/05/2022 |
Low wind supported the day ahead power price. However, the rest of the curve fell taking direction from gas which corrected after bullish reactions from Russian sanctions on the German arm of Gazprom. Mild temperatures and strong LNG continue to weigh on prices. |
| 17/05/2022 |
Wind forecasts for week 21 are expected to average below seasonal norms at 4.9GW providing some bullishness to the near curve, however temperatures remain above seasonal norms at 14.5 degrees. The winter’22 contract fell as the EU confirmed companies can pay for Russian gas in Euros without breaking sanctions. In other news, Ofgem announced they would hold a consultation to review the current cap methodology, proposing to move towards a quarterly energy price cap that would take effect in October. |
| 18/05/2022 |
Power prices increased in line with gas prices due low wind forecasts into week 21, whilst LNG cargoes arriving in the UK are drying up. French power prices rose as a result of the head of the French nuclear regulator ASN stating on Tuesday that fixing state owned nuclear reactors would require a large scale plan and several years. Nuclear production in France this winter is already a concern and it is expected that the interconnectors would be exporting from the UK to France, adding further tightness in the market. |
| 19/05/2022 |
The near curve rallied as a result of lower LNG arrivals coming to the UK and as wind forecasts are expected to fall to 5GW. Temperatures are expected to remain warm into the next week. Significant bearish pressure on the far curve came from the EU proposal to mobilise €300bn package for the net zero energy transition and selling €20 billion of EUA |
| 20/05/2022 |
Temperatures for week 21 remain at seasonal norms whilst wind forecasts are expected to average 7.1GW well above seasonal norms adding additional bearishness to the week ahead contract. The French winter’22 contract rose providing some support to UK power prices as a result of as EDF revising down its estimate for 2022 output for the third time this year. The rest of the curve followed gas prices lower with risk of Russian supply halting being priced out. |
| 23/05/2022 |
Power prices tracked downward pressure in the gas market as a result of increased LNG arrivals to Europe, and rising flows via Langeled. The Hinkley Point C plant is now expected to start in June 2027, a delay from June 2026. Eleclink’s (the interconnector between the UK and Belgium) first day ahead auction will occur tomorrow. The first long term auction will take place on 150MW of July monthly capacity. |
| 24/05/2022 |
Bullishness was seen for the week-ahead contract as temperatures in the UK remain above seasonal norms for week 22 at 14.5 degrees, however, wind forecasts for week 22 fell from 5.5GW to 4.6GW. The prompt tracked movements in the gas market due to lower Norweigan flows, whilst the rest of the curve fell as a result of stronger LNG arrivals and lower carbon prices, and continued warm temperatures. |
| 25/05/2022 |
Power prices rose on the curve, tracking gas prices amid concerns over Russian gas flows continue, whilst bullish oil prices as an embargo on Russian oil could be imminent. The prompt fell as a result of high wind forecasts and rising Norwegian gas flows. |
| 26/05/2022 |
Temperatures forecasts start to fall to below seasonal norms, dipping to 10 degrees on 30th May, but rise above seasonal norms thereafter. Wind forecasts are expected to be low into next week adding bullish sentiment, pushing up both the prompt and near curve prices. Concerns that Russian oil could be banned by the EU added bullishness to the far curve. Additionally, uncertainty around Russian gas flows continues as the payment deadline draws closer. |
| 27/05/2022 |
Limited movement was seen in the market yesterday, with slight losses on the near-curve amid steady gas supplies into Europe, however further dated contracts were supported by the expected EU ban on Russian oil imports. |
| 30/05/2022 |
A tighter prompt market amid cooler weather and low wind, combined with heightened gas supply concerns led the UK power curve to jump on Friday. Close attention will be paid to EU LNG arrivals over the coming weeks as China comes out of lockdown |
| 31/05/2022 |
Worries over a cut in Russian gas supply to Denmark and the Netherlands, combined with the potential for slowing LNG arrivals to Europe helped push near-curve contracts higher yesterday. Low wind across Europe also contributed to the overall bullish sentiment. |
| 01/06/2022 |
The potential limited impact to Russian gas flows after news of cuts to GasTerra, Orsted and Shell helped weigh on near-curve prices yesterday, however the far curve rose amid bullish oil. |
| 06/06/2022 |
UK Power followed the bearish sentiment embedded within the oil and gas markets on Wednesday to soften prices both within the near & far-curve. Excess demand and reduced fears of imminent restrictions on Russian gas supplies into the continent has eased fears of further upwards price shocks and low storage injection rates. The Winter’22 contract notably fell £5.27/MWh by end-of-day as forecasted consumption demand continued to seem less challenging in light of recession fears and the continued premium held within European LNG prices over its Asian counterparts. |
| 07/06/2022 |
Steady Russian gas flows and a weak fundamental outlook over the coming few days helped more risk to be priced out of nearer-dated contracts, however the far-curve picked up in low liquidity. |
| 08/06/2022 |
Bearish weather fundamentals, coupled with strong gas supply led to further risk being priced out along the near-curve. |
| 09/06/2022 |
Ample LNG supply, high wind generation and mild weather all helped weigh on UK power contracts yesterday. Additionally EDF France announced the delay of several planned nuclear outages in Q1 next year, however this failed to have great impact on market prices. |
| 10/06/2022 |
UK power jumped with European gas contracts yesterday amid concerns over LNG supply after an explosion at the Freeport LNG facility, taking operations offline for a minimum of 3 weeks. |
| 13/06/2022 |
Uncertainty over LNG supply into Europe led to limited movement across the UK power curve, offsetting bullish support from mild windy weather. |
| 14/06/2022 |
Lower Russian flows into Germany and concerns over LNG supply after the Freeport fire led to more premium being priced in across the UK power curve. |
| 15/06/2022 |
A reduction in the LNG supply forecast from the U.S pushed up prices on Tuesday and combined with technical issues at the NS1 pipeline to lift prices across the curve. The greatest uplift came in the front month contract which rose £27.12/MWh as the initial three week outage at Freeport LNG was extended to ninety days, reducing supply into Europe over that period by circa 11TWh. |
| 16/06/2022 |
Limited Russian flows to both Germany and Italy added significant risk around gas supply this winter, leading W22 up over £20/MWh. Nord Stream 1 flows have fallen to just 700GWh/d today, down from 1,500GWh/d this time last week. |
| 17/06/2022 |
Continued low Russian pipeline flows into Europe stoked fears of gas supply shortages this winter, with Germany describing the Gazprom cuts as politically motivated. The market awaits further news on the potential return of Nord Stream 1 flows and could see further volatility until we get clarity. |
| 20/06/2022 |
Russian gas supply worries continued to feed volatility and illiquidity across the UK power curve, however contracts gave up some previous gains to close lower day-on-day. Any details on the future of Russian supply to Europe will be key to driving prices over the coming days. |
| 21/06/2022 |
Another volatile day was seen across power markets amid continued uncertainty over Russian gas supply, with flows into both Germany and Italy remaining curtailed. |
| 22/06/2022 |
UK power contracts followed up with bullishness seen across European gas hubs amid continued worries over Russian supply. |
| 23/06/2022 |
Near-curve contracts lost value yesterday with the gas supply picture this summer still looking strong with high LNG imports, however Russian supply going into this winter continues to add risk to the W22 contract. |
| 24/06/2022 |
A slight uptick in immediate renewable generation soften prompt prices yesterday with the DA contract falling £39/MWh. This drop could not be sustained further down the curve as power prices followed the sharp rally in natural gas as the supply squeeze in continental Europe continues to lift prices. The greatest uplift was seen in the Aug’22 contract which rose £16.83/MWh day-on-day. |
| 27/06/2022 |
Contracts across the curve tracked down with gas with some Norwegian supply returning from outage, whilst LNG supply remains strong |
| 28/06/2022 |
Continued uncertainty regarding future Russian gas flows led to mixed trading in power yesterday |
| 29/06/2022 |
Continued concerns over gas supply going into this winter helped lift UK power contracts, whilst bullish sentiment in carbon also added support. |
| 30/06/2022 |
Low wind forecast for today caused the day-ahead contract to surge c.£50/MWh, with the clean spark valued above £100/MWh. Curve contracts continued to be supported by gas amid worries over Russian supply to Europe. |
| 01/07/2022 |
Prices across the UK Power market followed the supply squeeze in continental gas to lift prices from the month ahead onwards. The prompt market did soften however due to increased renewable generation and mild temperatures. |
| 04/07/2022 |
Strong SVT demand saw the W22 power price rally over the proportional uplift in gas with clean spark spreads widening £3.02/MWh by end-of-day. With the return date of the expected flows from the NS1 still unknown, the outright power market closed at £350.98, a £7.47/MWh uplift. |
| 05/07/2022 |
Prices in UK power followed-on from the uplift in the gas market to rally hard across all contracts yesterday. The primary driver of this rise which began in mid-June has been the reduced gas flows via the NS1 pipeline between Russia & Germany. Continental storage injection rates have now dropped to below 4TWh per day since mid-June, a reduction of circa 20% since May’22. With a number of major gas off-takers now being forced to buy-back hedges due to the unexpected low flow rates, the added pressure together with the Norwegian strikes continues to push up the prices |
| 06/07/2022 |
Prices across the UK Power curve followed UK and continental gas prices movements driven by uncertainty of gas supplies from Russia and Norwegian strike action. NS1 maintenance, scheduled from 11th to 21st July, risks long-term disruptions. Price rises also followed news that Germany bought stakes in energy companies struggling with soaring prices of imported gas. The prompt market did soften however due to increased renewable generation and warm temperatures. DA closed £213/MWh. Winter’22 closed £376.2/MWh. |
| 07/07/2022 |
UK Power curve followed curve gas prices upwards which were driven by uncertainty of Russian flows after the NS1 maintenance in July. The UK Power prompt market softened with milder above-seasonal temperatures forecast until week29. Wind production is expected above seasonal normal for week27, thereafter falling below norms for week28. DA closed £185/MWh. Winter’22 closed £390.2/MWh |
| 08/07/2022 |
UK Power curve continued to follow curve gas prices upwards as ongoing supply fears continued to fuel bullish sentiment. The UK Power prompt market rose following forecasts of falling wind power. However, temperatures forecast are well above seasonal norms until end of week29, but a tight French market kept UK Power prices supported. DA closed £231/MWh. Winter’22 closed £414/MWh. |
| 11/07/2022 |
Most power contracts took bearish direction from gas amid slight positivity Nord Stream 1 flows would not be cut off completely after its maintenance period. Turbines currently held in Canada could be exempt from sanctions, however more clarity is needed on timescales and if Russia would be willing to increase flows. W22 power remained strong with the clean spark spread now valued over £80/MWh. |
| 12/07/2022 |
Mixed movement was seen across the UK power curve as slight losses in gas was offset by continued strengthening of clean spark spreads. |
| 13/07/2022 |
Bullishness again fed from further unplanned Norwegian gas outages, with Langeled pipeline imports dropping to below 10mcm yesterday. |
| 14/07/2022 |
Continued bullishness across European gas hubs led UK power higher yet again yesterday, with Norwegian gas field outages and uncertainty over the return of Nord Stream 1 adding support. The heatwave in Europe is also having a bullish impact with greater air-conditioning load, whilst having a negative impact on both CCGT and nuclear output. |
| 15/07/2022 |
No update |
| 18/07/2022 |
The hot weather over Europe supported prompt prices on Friday, with the day-ahead contract closing up at £328.33/MWh, with reliability and efficiency at CCGT’s likely impacted. The rest of the curve lost value along with gas, however sparks were again supported. |
| 19/07/2022 |
A bearish gas market failed to pressure UK power as a continued lack of sellers and panicked buyers drove up the outright price. W22 traded at a high of £465/MWh, with the clean spark spread at c.£150/MWh. |
| 20/07/2022 |
Extreme temperatures across Britain have increased gas-fired power demand by approx. 39mcm/day above the seasonal average. Temperatures are seen to fall, relieving cooling related demand into week30. W22 clean sparks traded down to £142/MWh, the W22 Base contract retreating from record highs to close at £449.68/MWh as market saw a lack of sellers and low liquidity levels. |
| 21/07/2022 |
Temperatures forecast to remain above seasonal norms until week31 coupled with the prospect of falling wind output for this week, lead UK Day-ahead contract to surge by £83.42/MWh to close at £325.92/MWh. Winter’22 Base contract increased by £2.34/MWh to close at £452.01/MWh on low liquidity. |
| 22/07/2022 |
Temperatures forecast to fall to seasonal norms over the next two weeks with wind generation broadly in line with averages. UK Power Day-ahead contract dropped £33.75/MWh to close at £292.17/MWh. Winter’22 Base contract edged up by £0.54/MWh to close at £452.55/MWh on low liquidity. |
| 25/07/2022 |
Continued concerns over Russian gas flows caused bullishness down the power curve, with market participants awaiting what happens with flows later this week. |
| 26/07/2022 |
UK Day-ahead Power rose on low wind output, which is set to fall to 5.8GW/day and is forecast below seasonal norms over the next fortnight. UK Power curve contracts followed Gas upwards on supply fears form Nord Stream 1 and low liquidity. The Winter’22 contract hit an all-time high of £486/MWh to close at £482/MWh. |
| 27/07/2022 |
The Winter’22 contract exceeded £500/MWh on Tuesday and hit an all-time high on very low market liquidity, following gains across European and NBP gas hubs. Winter’22 was up by £45.58/MWh to close at £527.58/MWh. UK Day-ahead Power rose on low wind output, which is set to fall below seasonal norms until week 33, to close at £314.17/MWh |
| 28/07/2022 |
Strong gains were see again on the near-curve as Russian gas exports through Nord Stream 1 dropped, feeding worries over gas supplies this winter. Despite bearish gas on further dated contracts, power remained well supported due to a lack of sellers. |
| 29/07/2022 |
UK prompt and curve power prices followed gas contracts down despite a well-below seasonal wind output of 2.8GW for the rest of the week and temperature forecasts revised upwards for Week32 indicating higher CCGT demand. Month Ahead lost £31.16/MWh to close at £296.86/MWh. Winter’22 held its level to close at £539.12/MWh. |
| 01/08/2022 |
Near-curve power saw a correction down on Friday, following bearish sentiment in gas as strong supply from the North Sea and LNG helps alleviate gas supply concerns |
| 02/08/2022 |
Day Ahead Power weakened by £81.75/MWh to close at £240.75/MWh, following expectations of strong wind output for rest of Week31. Curve power contracts followed gas upwards on low liquidity. Winter’22 was up by £20.48/MWh to close at £543.70/MWh. |
| 03/08/2022 |
Wind generation forecasts for Week32 revised downwards to an average of 3.9GW, well below the seasonal average, and wind output expected to tail off over Week31 averaging 2.8GW. Day Ahead Power added £13.51/MWh to close at £254.26/MWh. Curve power contracts remained strong, in line with NBP gas on low liquidity. Winter’22 was up by £5.58/MWh to close at £549.29/MWh. |
| 04/08/2022 |
UK power contracts saw limited trading again yesterday with all contracts, bar W22, seeing gains. The W22 BL/PK spread has widened significantly over the past few days, reaching £205/MWh. |
| 05/08/2022 |
The UK power curve saw strong support through Thursday, with bullish gas and a lack of selling continuing to drive prices up. The W22 contract lifted c.£34/MWh, with the clean spark spread now valued at almost £210/MWh. |
| 08/08/2022 |
Near curve power contracts followed NBP prompt gas contracts down with incoming LNG vessels being the main driver. Wind generation forecasts for Weeks 34-36 were revised above the seasonal averages with low generation for week37. Curve power contracts moved in line with NBP gas on low liquidity. Winter’22 closed at £573.205/MWh. |
| 09/08/2022 |
Limited movement seen across the UK power curve despite losses in gas, with clean spark spreads again lifting. |
| 10/08/2022 |
Mixed movements seen yesterday as the W22 clean spark surprisingly narrowed, whilst further dated contracts moved higher amid long-term gas supply worries. The Norwegian government yesterday decided to limit power exports in the event of low hydropower reserves. |
| 11/08/2022 |
Fears of a prolonged supply crisis continued to add significant premium across the curve. |
| 12/08/2022 |
UK Power prompt contracts rose in value with tight supply margins as temperatures kept cooling demand elevated for rest of this week and wind generation forecasts for Weeks 33 were expected to remain around seasonal averages. Winter’22 contract continued upwards to record highs on low liquidity as concerns persist over winter shortages. Winter’22 closed at £597.41/MWh. |
| 15/08/2022 |
The power market continued to swing heavily on Friday despite a softening gas market as low liquidity in the far curve pushed up both outright prices and spark spreads. Winter’23 sparks rose £8.04/MWh despite equivalent gas contract falling 6.9p/th as high margining and credit requirements has reduced the incentive for sellers to participate in the OTC market. |
| 16/08/2022 |
UK power jumped along with strength across European gas hubs amid continually growing worries supply won’t be enough to meet demand this winter. |
| 17/08/2022 |
UK Power contracts along the curve set fresh highs as gas prices continued to rise on growing supply concerns. UK prompt also rose as wind output was forecast to dip below seasonal norms for the week-ahead. Winter’22 contract continued upwards to record highs on low liquidity to close at £629.44/MWh. |
| 18/08/2022 |
UK power contracts for delivery this winter lost value yesterday despite a rise in equivalent gas contracts, with clean sparks easing. UK W22 BL closed at c.£625/MWh, however is still at a stark discount to France (c.€1070/MWh) |
