| 02/01/2024 |
The NBP is pricing a touch lower than the previous session to start the new year. The fundamentals continue to impact prices bearishly, despite some colder weather on the horizon. The UK system is more than 20mcm long at open with strong supplies coming in from LNG and Norway and demand significantly below seasonal normal. Temperatures are set to drop below seasonal normal at the back end of this week with the colder weather persisting through the middle part of January. Wind generation is also set to follow a similar pattern, dropping below seasonal normal a little earlier than temperatures, on Thursday. These changes in weather will see additional demand. As we enter Q124, European storage sits at 87% fullness, tracking above the previous 3 years. |
| 03/01/2024 |
Escalations in the conflict in the Middle East overnight have seen increases on the NBP. The front month Feb-24 is currently pricing around 79.30p/th, roughly 4p/th higher than last night’s close. Maersk have suspended its Red Sea shipping route with an Iranian warship also entering the Red Sea, causing tensions to mount. The weather is also adding support, with temperatures set to drop as much as 6 degrees over the next few days. The UK system remains balanced by 4mcm at open this morning with temperatures holding 4 degrees above seasonal normal for now. Total demand sits at 233mcm, 57mcm below seasonal normal. Bearish fundamentals continue to limit the upside, despite the colder weather and geopolitical drivers. |
| 04/01/2024 |
The NBP day-ahead price rose sharply on Wednesday, and low wind output may increase the call on gas-fired power plants in the coming days, at least partly offsetting weak household consumption owing to mild weather. |
| 05/01/2024 |
The NBP has once again opened slightly higher than the previous session as temperatures turn colder. The front month Feb-24 contract has traded above 85p/th this morning, roughly 1.5p/th higher than last nights close. The UK system is 5mcm short at time of writing, with total demand at 268mcm, 18mcm below seasonal normal. The UK is nominating to withdraw 18mcm from medium range storage sites and exports along the IUK to the continent have been reduced in order to meet the additional heating and CCGT demand following the weather changes. Next week will see temperatures drop to 4 degrees below seasonal normal by the 10th, before a slight recovery and then further cold going into week 3. |
| 08/01/2024 |
NBP prices have opened up down from last weeks close amid some more confidence in the supply to the market. The UK gas system has opened around to 5mcm short this morning with an increase in LDZ demand following on from the lower temperatures, this is reflected in the latest demand forecast being 45 mcm above the seasonal normal demand. LNG importation to the system has dramatically increased to 92.7mcm with the weather conditions now allowing vessels to birth at their ports after the storms over the past weeks have restricted the vessels arriving. Storages have seen some withdrawals over the weekend with the cooler temperatures, overall storage numbers remain strong, EU storages are now sitting at 84.88% |
| 09/01/2024 |
NBP prices have once again opened below the previous trading sessions trading with the front month Feb-24 contract trading around 78p/therm mark at the time of writing. The dip in prices could be attributed to the warmer weather runs that are forming for the UK. Overnight the weather runs for the latter portion of January looked to have ticked up and forecasted that the temperatures could get back above seasonal normal levels towards the end of the month. A cooler period for Feb-24 may still be on the cards. The supply picture is still very strong currently, total Norwegian flows are operating at 317mcm/day and the supply picture for LNG looks to be ramping up next week. Storages are still very strong for this time of year even with the withdrawals up due to the cooler weather currently in Europe. |
| 10/01/2024 |
NBP prices have again opened below the close of yesterday, the front month Feb-24 contract is now trading at 76.5p/therm at the time of writing. The UK system is long this morning for the first time this week with LNG send out now operating at a very strong 108mcm earlier today. LNG vessels that were unable to berth during the strong winds over the past couple of weeks have now been able to land at UK ports. Langeled flows have been operating near their capacity this week with the UK’s supply picture looking strong. The market is paying close attention to the withdrawals from storage with the EU storage now seeing significant withdrawals day on day, the latest data shows a withdrawal in the EU for 0.79% with the continent seeing some very cold temperatures. Crude Oil prices have risen today on the back of the news coming from the US Oil inventories showing some decline, this story looks to have helped drive demand up and pushed prices in the same direction. |
| 11/01/2024 |
The UK gas system opened up around 25mcm short this morning as the forecasted demand for gas today is nearly 50mcm above the seasonal average. Supply is still strong with flows from Norway remaining strong and the LNG send out still at a good level. Weather forecasts for the UK show that temperatures should reach and exceed the seasonal averages towards the end of January and the wind forecast shows a similar story where we could expect a mild and windy end of the month. The Dutch government have re activated the Groningen gas fields after closing production last year, this is due to the colder temperatures that the Netherlands is experiencing and is expecting over the coming weeks. The NBP market has opened at levels near the open of trading yesterday with the front month Feb-24 contract trading at 77.35p/th at the time of writing |
| 12/01/2024 |
The news dominating the headlines this morning comes from the Middle East, where the UK and the USA have conducted strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen in order to try and provide security to the vessels navigating the Suez canal. These strikes haven’t really driven up the gas markets as of yet, but the price of crude oil has gapped up by around 2% this morning. There is an unplanned outage at Norway’s Aasta Hansteen field which will see output cuts of 8mcm per day, the outage is expected to last only 24 hours. UK weather is expected to cool next week reaching below seasonal levels, LDZ demand could see an increase. Supply to the UK remains strong from Norwegian flow, LNG importation and storage. The NBP front month Feb-24 contract is trading around 77.75p/th at the time of writing |
| 15/01/2024 |
UK gas prices have moved down during early trading on Monday despite cold weather and bullish news emerging from the Middle East. |
| 16/01/2024 |
The NBP February contract fell sharply on Monday, and a drop in consumption towards the end of this month could allow for net injections. |
| 17/01/2024 |
The NBP balance-of-January price fell on Tuesday, and while much milder weather forecast later this month could push down heating demand, strong winds could prevent some LNG deliveries. |
| 18/01/2024 |
UK gas prices remain at a similar level to the close on Wednesday with the UK still comfortably supplied during the cold temperatures |
| 19/01/2024 |
UK gas prices have ticked upwards slightly upon early trading this morning despite the cold weather subsiding later today. |
| 22/01/2024 |
A small outage at Barrow terminal has led to 6mcm drop in capacity, with the asset only expected back online this afternoon. UKCS supply has fallen from 61mcm to 54mcm on the back of this news and seems to be the main reason behind the short grid. Temperatures are turning warmer overnight and the weekend will bring mild and windy conditions, leading to a bearish start to the week for demand. Oil prices ticked up on Thursday’s training as the IEA and OPEC released 2024 demand outlook with an expected 1.24million barrel increase likely on demand growth. The US is experiencing extreme cold at present and this has led to some facilities shutting down, leading to a large draw down in US inventories for the week. |
| 23/01/2024 |
UK gas prices have opened roughly in line with last night’s close with the market holding onto losses following the return of mild and windy conditions. The front month Feb-24 contract is pricing at 68.10p/th at time of writing. Storm Isha and Jocelyn are lifting wind speeds significantly above seasonal normal for this week. Milder air from the Atlantic will also see temperatures hold 4 or 5 degrees above seasonal normal on average for the UK this week. The UK system is 8mcm long at time of writing. Total demand sits at 253mcm, 43mcm below seasonal normal and 4mcm below Monday’s level. The strong winds have seen delays to LNG cargos offloading at UK terminals. LNG send out today is nominating at 60mcm. Brent oil is also holding on to losses on weaker global economic growth forecasts. Oil prices have moved lower despite the diversion in the Red Sea and a suspected drone attack on an export terminal near to St. Petersburg over the weekend. |
| 24/01/2024 |
UK gas prices have ticked up slightly this morning, due to a the UK grid opening up with a small short with demand currently outweighing total supply. UK demand is up 8mcm today, reaching 260mcm which remains well below seasonal average at 295mcm. Slightly weaker Norwegian flows (66mcm compared to 71mcm) and lower LNG sendout are causing the current short. |
| 25/01/2024 |
Tight supply and some technical support ensured the NBP curve corrected upwards on Wednesday. A short UK system pushed up prompt and near curve contracts, with the UK 12mcm short at the open. Despite demand being well below seasonal average due to mild temperatures, weaker Norwegian flows and lower LNG sendout helped tighten the UK. A 6mcm/day outage at UKCS facility Barrow will resume today following an unexpected outage just over a week ago which should help bring a small boost to supply. |
| 26/01/2024 |
UK gas prices have opened lower this morning, moving lower even with a short UK system and extended supply restrictions. Total UK demand has fallen by 23mcm day on day, due to mild and windy weather reducing LDZ demand and CCGT requirements. Gas burn for power generation stands at just 10mcm today. Despite the demand reduction, the UK system is still short as the unexpected maintenance issue at Barrow has been extended until Sunday, with UKCS flows down from 62mcm to 54mcm. |
| 29/01/2024 |
The headlines related to LNG supply look to be driving the bullish move in gas markets currently, with the news out of Freeport LNG on Friday that they will be closing one of its units for a month of maintenance. LNG is increasingly important to the supply mix for Europe and any disruption to supply could cause an increase in prices. President Biden has announced a pausing of any new licences for LNG projects. The USA is the largest exporter of the liquified gas, this could become a contentious election topic this year with the Republicans eventual nominee potentially having an opposing view. The UK gas system opened 7.5mcm short this morning with the demand forecast trailing normal seasonal demand by over 40mcm on the back of warmer weather. |
| 30/01/2024 |
NBP prices have opened slightly down on yesterdays close after the bullish run from the end of last week pushed prices up. The Feb-24 contract expiry is approaching so liquidity for the contract could dry up. The UK gas system opened 8mcm short this morning with LNG importation up on yesterday’s nomination and slightly lower Langeled flows than seen yesterday. The demand forecast still lags behind the seasonal normal levels by close to 42mcm with the warmer than average weather is pushing LDZ demand down. The EC46 temperature forecast has been slightly revised with the end of February into early March pushing downwards below the seasonal average levels that we are currently above. |
| 31/01/2024 |
NPB prices have opened above last nights close, continuing the bullish move that has been taking place this week. The Mar-24 contract is trading at 74.00p/th at the time of writing. The headline news surrounding LNG looks to be one of the main drivers in this upwards move with the closure at Freeport and Presidents Bidens pausing of any new LNG projects. LNG vessels are seeing delays on their voyages with shipping companies opting to reroute around Africa in order not to transit the Red Sea after another attack over the weekend caused an Oil tanker to set on fire. |
| 01/02/2024 |
The NBP front month March-24 contract is trading at 73.60p/th at the time of writing after the bullish headlines throughout the week have pushed prices up. The current demand forecast lags behind the seasonal normal level by over 40mcm as warmer than average temperatures are reducing demand. The UK system is short by 2.5mcm at the time of writing |
| 02/02/2024 |
The front month March-24 NBP contract has corrected down along with some of the other prompt contracts at the time of writing on the expectation of a mild and windy February. The weather remains the key driver in the market at the moment with the EC46 temperature forecast showing below seasonal normal levels from late February into early March. The current demand forecast for the UK gas system is almost 70mcm below the seasonal normal levels which show the impact the mild and windy weather is having on the demand. The UK ystsem is long for the first time this week with the system currently showing as nearly 18mcm long at the time of writing. |
| 05/02/2024 |
UK gas prices have opened a touch lower this morning despite a short system, weaker Norwegian flows and forecasts for cooler temperatures in the coming fortnight. Unexpected outages at Troll field and Nyhamna processing plant have reduced Norwegian volumes by around 30mcm compared to last week. Troll field is offline due to a compressor failure, with Nyhamna down due to an external power outage. Both facilities are expected back online on 6th February. |
| 06/02/2024 |
UK gas prices opened in line with Monday’s close but have drifted upwards during early trading, fuelled by support from growing confidence in colder upcoming weather. The UK system is short again this morning despite demand remaining well below seasonal average, with low LNG flows and creeping CCGT demand as wind generation begins to weaken. |
| 07/02/2024 |
UK gas prices ticked up on Tuesday, fuelled by weaker Norwegian and UKCS supply and increasing demand as a colder weather period started within the region. Cold temperatures overnight and weak wind generation has lifted today’s forecast demand by 50mcm, just 15mcm below seasonal average. Weak wind generation has ensured that CCGT has climbed from 6mcm on Monday to 62mcm today and LDZ forecast is up to 175mcm. |
| 08/02/2024 |
UK gas prices opened and closed at a similar level on Wednesday, with small gains in the morning session eroded by losses in the afternoon. UK demand is down by 12mcm day on day, dropping to 268mcm with a reduction in CCGT contributing to the largest drop in the forecast. Increased wind generation has ensured CCGT has dropped from 62mcm to 38mcm |
| 09/02/2024 |
UK gas prices have opened a touch lower to start the day, with demand reduction and improvements to the supply picture pressuring prices. The UK system opened slightly long at 1.2mcm, the first time it has been oversupplied in a week. Langeled and UKCS flows have increased to their highest level of the week following the outages that have come back online. |
| 12/02/2024 |
Weaker demand off the back of milder and windier weather forecasts have seen prices open slightly lower to start the week. The front month Mar-24 contract is currently pricing at 64.20p/th at time of writing, 1.40p/th lower than Friday’s close. The UK system is balanced at 2mcm short with total demand at 255mcm, 42mcm below seasonal normal demand. On supplies, Norwegian imports are at capacity with UKCS nominations at 47mcm. We are withdrawing from storage today, with nominations at 31mcm. Temperatures are just above seasonal normal today with the peak of the warmth coming on Thursday and Friday, where temperatures are expected to be around 6 degrees above seasonal normal. The weather, along with other bearish fundamentals, continue to drive gas prices downwards with healthy supplies and weak demand a common theme across the commodity markets, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. |
| 13/02/2024 |
The NBP has seen prices lift slightly during this morning’s session, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses. Despite the increases the market remains very much bearish with the warmer weather and healthy supplies the main drivers of price currently on the prompt curve. The UK system is 9mcm short at time of writing, with total demand at 247mcm, 48mcm below seasonal normal. The system dynamics remain similar to yesterday with a reduction in storage withdrawals being the main difference day on day. LNG send out is holding relatively low for the time of year, nominating at just 44mcm today. The UK could see 5 vessels delivering by Feb 18th, a notable slow down on busier schedules earlier in the winter. European storage levels are at 67% fullness, near to records highs over the last 5 years, which is another driver contributing to the bearishness. |
| 14/02/2024 |
NBP prices have opened roughly 1p/th lower across the curve as the bearish trend continues in European gas markets. The front month Mar-24 is currently pricing at 61.20p/th with the same contract on the TTF breaking below a key level of support at €25.00/MWh this morning. The UK system is balanced at 1mcm short at time of writing, with total demand at 256mcm, 38mcm below seasonal normal. Temperatures are set to peak around 7 degrees above seasonal normal to end the week. However, wind generation is dropping around 40% as we move into Thursday which will bring additional gas for power demand. Wider commodities are also adding bearish pressure with European coal supplies very healthy and Carbon EUAs holding at 2 year lows. Brent oil remains supported to the upside, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and upward global demand revisions made by OPEC. |
| 15/02/2024 |
NBP prices have lifted slightly at open this morning with the market now range bound after recent losses. The front month Mar-24 contract has been pricing between 60p/th and 63p/th in recent sessions with the 60p/th remaining a key level of support that has yet to be broken in the current sell off. Bearish fundamentals continue to support the market to the downside with temperatures reaching up to 15 degrees in the UK today. The UK system is 17mcm long at time of writing, with total demand at 225mcm, 68mcm below seasonal normal. Domestic heating demand is nominating at just 139mcm, 16mcm lower day on day. LNG send out as increased on the supply side, with nominations at 62mcm, 18mcm higher day on day. |
| 16/02/2024 |
The NBP has opened similar to yesterday with prices slightly higher than last nights close. However, trading continues to be range bound after heavy losses in recent days. Poor wind generation and an unplanned outage at Kollsnes is adding support with the fundamentals still bearish. The UK system is 4mcm long at open with total demand at just 207mcm, nearly 80mcm below seasonal normal. LNG send out has increased to 61mcm driven by vessels diverting away from French LNG terminals, due to ongoing strike action, to the UK and other European terminals. However, Norwegian imports along the Langeled pipeline have decreased with the 23mcm capacity loss at Kollsnes now with an end date of tomorrow. Temperatures in the UK are very mild at 7 degrees above seasonal normal today, resulting in the weak demand figures. |
| 19/02/2024 |
The NBP has opened lower than the close we saw last week as bearish fundamentals continue to drive the market down. The brief resistance in downtrend last week brought by the outage at Kollsnes looks now to be over as Langeled flows to the UK are back up near their capacity. The UK system opened up nearly 36mcm long this morning with the forecasted demand trailing the seasonal normal demand by 88mcm as the mild temperatures are pushing down the LDZ demand. |
| 20/02/2024 |
NBP prices have opened slightly higher today. The Mar-24 front month contract is currently pricing at 58.80p/th, more than a penny up on last nights close, at time of writing. The UK system is balanced with total demand at 223mcm, 65mcm below seasonal normal. An unplanned outage at Karsto is taking 13mcm offline with Langeled nominations lower today, at 64mcm. Temperatures are currently 4 degrees above seasonal normal with the weekend and early next week seeing a colder change, dropping below seasonal normal. Along with the additional heating demand, gas for power generation is also set to pick up with wind generation also set to drop at the weekend. |
| 21/02/2024 |
NBP prices are roughly in line with last night’s close despite a short system, reduced LNG flows coming into the UK and an unplanned outage at Aasta Hansteen. The UK system is 9mcm short at time of writing, with total demand at 205mcm, 82mcm below seasonal normal. LNG send out is nominating at just 24mcm, with Langeled also reduced at 59mcm. However, demand is significantly below seasonal normal because of the warmer and windier weather. The fundamentals remain bearish with relatively healthy supplies, weak demand and a surplus of gas in storage. European storage is currently holding at the 65% fullness level |
| 22/02/2024 |
The UK system has opened up relatively balanced today with the latest supply forecast being around 4mcm more than the latest demand update. The warmer than seasonal normal temperatures are still influencing the demand for gas, the latest demand forecast trailed the seasonal normal demand by close to 60mcm. The weather forecast is showing a drop in temperatures this weekend and early next week before picking back up to above seasonal levels. The drop in temperatures over the coming days is coupled with a drop in wind generation over the weekend so there may be some support provided for DA prices. |
| 23/02/2024 |
The bearish fundamentals continue to drive the NBP market this morning, strong supply coupled with mild and windy weather forecast have driven the market down to levels not seen in years. EU storages have been last reported still around the 65% level as we enter late February and into months with traditionally lower demand for gas. The weather forecast shows some cooler temperatures arriving from today and remaining until next Wednesday where the forecast has the UK heating back up to seasonal normal levels, this could provide support to DA prices with an increase expected in LDZ demand. The UK system opened around 8mcm short this morning as even with the cooler weather the latest demand forecast trails the seasonal normal demand by 30mcm. |
| 26/02/2024 |
The UK has opened with a short system this morning as temperatures continue to hold below seasonal average. Weak wind generation has also contributed to some strength on the prompt. Wind generation is expected to average 3GW on Monday and Tuesday, increasing CCGT demand, before wind output increases to 12GW for the back of the week. Cold temperatures have propped up LDZ demand, with the consumption reaching 194mcm on domestic heating. |
| 27/02/2024 |
UK gas prices moved upwards on Monday having found some support from colder weather, stronger demand and RSI moving into oversold territory. Cold temperatures in the UK ensured the start of the week was met with a strong consumption figure, just below seasonal norm but with the UK system opening short. Strong storage withdrawals and forecasts for a cooler spell for the 2nd week of March also brought further support |
| 28/02/2024 |
UK gas prices climbed on Tuesday, fuelled by strong demand on colder temperatures and bullish news emerging from OPEC+ and Russia around Crude and petroleum products. The UK system was short for much of the day on Tuesday with cold temperatures lifting demand. Total UK consumption was at 272mcm with strong storage withdrawals. This morning, mild temperatures have ensured weaker consumption dropping to 235mcm. |
| 29/02/2024 |
NBP prices found further support on Wednesday, with prices lifting by around 2p/therm across the curve. Despite reduced demand due to milder weather, the UK system was short for most of the day. This wasn’t helped by the extension at Barrow’s gas treatment plant which was expected back online, but extended a further day to 29th February which kept 6mcm offline. |
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UK gas prices eased a touch on Thursday with near term contracts posting small losses, whereas the prompt lifted with an expectation of higher demand strengthening the DA. |
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UK gas prices have softened at the open today but have since lifted higher through the morning. The Apr-24 front month contract is currently pricing at 64p/th at time of writing which is only just below Fridays closing price. Bearish fundamentals remain in the market despite some short-term bullish drivers. A lack of LNG and cooler, calmer weather is supporting prices to the upside. The UK is expecting just 2 vessels to arrive this week. OPEC have also extended their production cuts of 2.2m barrels per day into Q224 which is also supporting the oil markets. Despite additional weather-related demand and tightened supplies, European gas markets remain bearish with European storage at 62% fullness, a record high over the last 5 years. |
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Prices on the NBP have lifted this morning, following the short term bullish trend seen over recent days. The front month Apr-24 contract is currently pricing around the 70p/th mark, roughly 3p/th lower than the previous session. Muted LNG flows, cooler weather forecasts and an unplanned outage a Karsto are impacting prices to the upside, with the UK system 12mcm short at time of writing. Total demand is at 247mcm, 24mcm below seasonal normal. A large US natural gas producer has released a statement overnight, announcing plans to reduce production because of the low price environment, which points towards possible future supply tightness. |
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The NBP market looks to be consolidating its 7 day run of gains this morning with the front month Apr-24 contract trading at 71.20p/th at the time of writing. Despite the bearish fundamentals, the market continues on its bullish move. One of the drivers pushing up the price is the lack of LNG on the way to the UK and Europe, with vessels diverting east into markets willing to pay more. |
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NBP prices have opened slightly higher this morning, with the front month Apr-24 contract currently pricing at 67p/th, roughly 1p/th higher than last nights close. Prices softened yesterday on decreasing demand with temperatures and wind generation improving day on day. There is also no significant colder weather in the forecasts for the remainder of Q124. A lack of LNG heading to the UK has drove prices upwards in recent days despite below seasonal demand and European storage holding strong at 62% fullness, with weak withdrawals seen through February. Total demand today is at 220mcm, 50mcm below seasonal normal |
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NBP prices opened roughly in line with last nights close but have since moved higher through the morning. The front month Apr-24 contract is currently pricing at 66.80p/th with the market operating in a trading range across the mid 60’s. The UK system is 4mcm short at time of writing, with total demand at just 207mcm, 57mcm below seasonal normal. Wind speeds have significantly risen day on day, with temperatures also rising slightly, resulting in less demand. The fundamental picture remains bearish on milder weather forecasts, strong storage levels and weak demand. The oil markets are being supported by a draw down in US stocks which indicates strengthened demand, as well as the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which would drive economic growth. |
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NBP has opened a touch lower than last weeks close after another forecasted reduction in demand off the back of some very mild and calm weather forecasts. The forecasts have average temperatures 2-3 degrees above the seasonal normal level over the next 2 weeks before a slight drop back down to seasonal levels towards the end of March. An outage at Nyhamna for today and tomorrow is one of the bullish drivers in the market today with 25mcm offline, despite that, flows through Langeled seem relatively undeterred and the market hasn’t reacted too strongly to the news. The system opened up around 8mcm short as the latest demand data trails the seasonal normal demand by nearly 20mcm, something that has not been uncommon this year. |
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NBP prices have opened at a similar level to yesterdays close after trading yesterday saw some bearish moves off the back of weather driven demand reduction. Storages in the EU remain near record high levels, the latest reported figure putting storages at 60.59% full, UK storages are 37.49% full. The latest weather forecasts have ticked down from yesterday with the temperature into late March now dipping below seasonal normal levels which could increase LDZ demand at the back of March after a very mild start to the month. The UK gas system has switched from yesterday and is now 6.6mcm long, the theme for the year continues with the demand forecast trailing the normal seasonal demand by almost 40mcm. |
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The UK gas system gas opened up relatively balanced this morning after very mild weather has driven down the latest demand forecast, which trails the seasonal normal levels by over 68mcm. The short term temperature forecast has temperatures up to 4 degrees above seasonal average for the UK creating a bearish picture for DA prices. The UK government announced yesterday support for gas powered power stations with the refurbishment of older plants and the creation of newer plants as the UK tries to secure its own energy demands. This may push back some of the net zero targets that were slated by the government over the past few years. The front month Apr-24 contract on NBP is trading around 63.00p/therm at the time of writing with the market trading at similar levels to the close we saw yesterday. |
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The market continues to be driven by the demand forecast weakening from bearish weather forecasts. The NBP opened up slightly down from where we saw yesterdays close with the front month Apr-24 contract trading at 62.20p/therm at the time of writing. Storages in the EU have last been reported at 60% which remains near record levels for March, the mild temperatures across the continent and the relatively strong wind generation has pushed down gas demand and therefore storages haven’t been relied on too heavily. Flows from Norway remain strong as the unscheduled maintenances come to a close. Despite the temporary shutdown of sites, flows from Langeled remained undeterred with nominations to the UK remaining close to the capacity of the pipeline. |
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UK gas prices posted gains on Thursday, fuelled by strong moves in the wider energy complex with carbon and oil prices posting significant gains. The UK has opened a touch higher again this morning with some of the front month contracts sitting at monthly highs following gains on Thursday. The UK has opened with a long system this morning, with demand well below seasonal norm. The total forecast is at 186mcm, against a seasonal average of 262mcm. Only a 1.9mcm planned outage at St Fergus is impacting flows. |
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It’s been a strong open on the NBP this morning off the back of restricted supplies due to ongoing maintenance. The front month contract is pricing at 71.70p/th at time of writing, more than 3p/th higher than Fridays closing price. UK continental shelf flows are being curtailed due to outages at St. Fergus Shell. Aasta Hansteen is also seeing losses of around 8mcm, although Norwegian imports along Langeled are nominating at near to capacity today. The supply tightness is resulting in a UK system that is 2mcm short. Total demand is a significant 87mcm below seasonal normal, at 179mcm, driven by the milder weather. There continues to be a lack of LNG heading to the UK. The next cargo scheduled to arrive isn’t until March 24th. European storage levels continue to hold above the previous 5 years at 60% fullness. |
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NBP gas prices opened slightly higher this morning but during the first hour of trading front month prices have just slipped below the closing price of yesterday. British gas prices climbed on Monday fuelled by an unplanned Norwegian outage which took 7.5mcm/day offline. Continued weak LNG schedule to the UK also helped contribute to further gains and recent strength in carbon markets also priced some premium into curve contracts. |
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UK gas prices have opened lower this morning despite increased demand across the UK. The UK opened with a long system which initially had prices pushed lower than on Tuesday but during the first hour of trading prices are now largely flat and trading sideways. Total UK demand has increased significantly compared to Tuesday, lifting to 210mcm, up from 186mcm. This is due to reduced metered wind output, with expectations of just 3GW expected today. The UK opened long at 16mcm but within the first hour that length was trimmed to just 2mcm |
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UK gas prices opened a touch lower this morning, with front month Apr-24 contract trading back in the 60sp/therm, however during early trading the contract has pushed back up over 70p/therm. Temperatures remain above seasonal today but are set to drop into the weekend, bringing a more robust demand level from heating. The UK forecast for today is at 179mcm, down 30mcm as wind generation is much higher. CCGT demand has fallen from 48mcm on Wednesday, to just 10mcm today ensuring that demand remains well below seasonal average. |
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UK gas prices eased on Thursday, fuelled by forecasts for warmer and windier weather for Friday. There were losses across the full curve but the biggest premium was eroded from prompt and near curve contracts. The NBP had accelerated losses compared to the TTF on Thursday, with the DA premium reducing by 1.25p/therm, holding just 0.8p/therm today. It’s unlikely exports from the UK will step up due to the lack of LNG seen arriving into the country. |
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The NBP has opened between 2 to 3 p/th higher at the front of the curve this morning, driven by geopolitical events over the weekend and a lack of LNG delivering to Europe. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine, as well ongoing disruption in the Red Sea, has driven global commodities higher to start this week. LNG supply to Europe is also down year on year with the UK set to receive just one cargo before month end in the current schedule. EDF has also extended outages at 2 French Nuclear Reactors this morning, tightening European power supplies. Despite the bullish price action, the UK system is comfortably long, at 16mcm, with total demand at 212mcm, 49mcm below seasonal normal. Demand has eased this week due to improving weather. European storages remain at multi year highs, at 59% fullness |
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The UK gas market has opened lower today, retracing most of yesterdays gains off the back of geopolitical events over the weekend. The front month Apr-24 contact is pricing at 71.60p/th at time of writing, 1.60p/th lower than last nights close, predominantly due to warmer weather revisions. The system is maintaining length at 11mcm long with total demand holding significantly below seasonal normal at 211mcm. Warmer weather across Europe is keeping demand relatively low for the time of year and allowing for injections back into storage. However, the market is still taking support by a lack of LNG heading to Europe and a bullish carbon market, with EUAs lifting to multi month highs yesterday. |
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It’s been a mixed open on the NBP this morning with prices rangebound. The front month Apr-24 contract initially opened around the 69.50p/th mark and has traded as high as 71.00 p/th before dropping away once again. Apr-24 and S24 expiry is fast approaching with the last day of trading being tomorrow, with the UK bank holiday on Friday. Prices have moved lower against levels earlier in the week due to warmer weather forecasts, rising wind generation and low demand. The Baltimore bridge collapse yesterday has impacted commodities with delays to the export of US coal. |
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The NBP has opened roughly in line with last nights close but has trended slightly lower through the morning. The UK system is ending the week 21mcm long, with total demand at 196mcm, 50mcm below seasonal normal. Bearish fundamentals remain with weak demand, warmer weather and strong wind generation over this weekend pushing prices lower. In bullish news, this morning has seen EDF extend outages at 2 French nuclear power plants, with cracks were found at one of them. LNG arrivals are also showing no signs of picking up, with the UK only expecting 1 cargo in the first week of April. |
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The May-24 NBP contract has opened up trading around the 68p/therm point at the time of writing this morning after the expiry of the Apr-24, Q2-24 & Sum-24 contracts at the end of last week. The temperature forecasts have turned up a notch with some very mild temperatures forecasted for the UK for the first half of April with the first weekend of the month expected to reach 3-4 degrees above the seasonal average. The wind forecast looks also to be peaking above seasonal levels into the weekend providing some bearish conditions for UKG. Flows from Norway are strong with no major maintenance in the headlines currently, flows from Langeled were around 72mcm this morning. With the strong supply, the UK gas system is 23mcm long this morning with the latest demand forecast trailing the seasonal normal demand by nearly 50mcm reflecting the milder temperatures we are seeing at the start of 2024. |
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The front month May-24 contract has opened up a step lower this morning with some pressure on the front of the curve brought by the bearish weather conditions expected in April. The start of April is showing mild and above seasonal level temperatures with the wind forecast showing a similar story. The UK has 2 LNG vessels scheduled to land by the end of April-24, that is after a March with extremely low levels of LNG entering the UK with buyers in Asia entering the market causing the price to move higher. |
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The NBP front month contract has bounced back slightly this morning after the close of yesterdays trading session brought the contract below the 64p/therm mark. At the time of writing the May-24 contract is trading around 64.30p/therm. Fundamentals remain strong for the market and the latest weather runs have helped to push the prices down, the risk from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East still remain, but for the time the fundamentals look to be in the driving seat. |
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NBP prices moved up yesterday after what many are putting down to a technical bounce. The RSI showed the market in an oversold territory for parts of the day yesterday. This morning the market looks to be trading at levels near the close of yesterday with the FM May-24 contract trading at 65.40p/therm at the time of writing |
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UK gas prices have opened relatively flat to Friday’s level with the UK grid balanced and a return of Norwegian outages. On Friday, markets climbed due to unplanned outages at Gullfaks and Nyhamna taking a combined 31.7mcm offline. Gullfaks returned on Saturday with Nyhamna set to return today. |
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UK gas prices increased on Monday, with most contracts out until Winter 2025 pushing up around 2/3p/therm, with more muted gains on the far curve. Additional Norwegian maintenance impacted prices at the near curve with two assets at Asgard field removing 13mcm and 7mcm/day of capacity. Similarly to the unplanned outages experienced on Friday, these are set to be shortlived and will return on 9th and 10th April respectively.
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UK gas prices eased on Tuesday with help from mild temperatures and strong wind generation reducing demand. Total UK demand fell by 4mcm from Monday into Tuesday and stood at 185mcm, with strong wind generation reducing CCGT. UK demand has crept up by 20mcm today as temperatures have fallen and will continue to drop to seasonal average into tomorrow. The LDZ demand has increased by 20mcm. Wind output remains strong and CCGT is still at 7mcm. |
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UK gas prices have opened a touch higher this morning with front May-24 front month contract breaching the 70p/therm mark once more and trading higher during the early session. An unexpected outage in the UK at Barrow gas treatment plant dropped 6mcm of availability on Wednesday which contributed to DA prices climbing whilst the curve remained relatively flat. |
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UK gas prices climbed on Thursday fuelled by a number of supply risks that came to market. The Freeport LNG terminal Train 3 tripped offline and caused some panic about the possibility of lower LNG flows to Europe in the coming weeks, whilst reports emerged from the conflict in Ukraine about damage to gas storage sites and power stations which raised risk about possible damange to further energy infrastructure. |
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The UK gas market initially opened lower than Fridays close to start the week, but prices have since climbed higher. The front month May-24 contract is currently pricing at 76.15p/th at time of writing. European commodity markets are being supported by a significant escalation in the conflict in the Middle East over the weekend. Markets are awaiting a response from Israel following a missile and drone attack conducted by Iran. An unplanned outage at Nyhamna has seen a 70mcm loss in capacity, tightening Norwegian gas exports and significantly reducing flows along the Langeled pipeline. Weather is also having a bullish impact with the UK 1-3 degrees below seasonal normal this week. Carbon EUA’s continue their upwards trajectory, rising more than 10% on Friday. Brent has come off from highs over the weekend, dropping back below the $90/bbl mark as a degree of calm returns back to the market with the weekends attack driving fears of a wider conflict. |
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The bullish momentum continues on the NBP this morning with the front month May24 contract breaking through the key level of 80p/th and going on to strengthen further, pricing at 81.30p/th at time of writing. Geopolitical events continue to be the main driver of price, with US LNG and Norwegian gas outages also supporting prices to the upside. Freeport, the second largest LNG terminal in the US, is running near to 0 capacity due to unplanned maintenance works. The unplanned outage at Nyhamna is also ongoing after a 1 day extension. Colder weather and weaker wind generation expected later this week is also adding support. |
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A slightly softer open on the NBP this morning, driven by expectations that the 50mcm outage at Nyhamna is due to come to an end today, after the outage was extended. The market remains well supported by the geopolitical events, colder weather forecasts and a lack of LNG delivering to Europe. The UK system is balanced at 1mcm today at time of writing. Total demand is at 201mcm, 49mcm below seasonal normal. LNG send out is muted at just 17mcm, 3 cargos are expected to deliver this week. Withdrawals from storage are very strong today, at 39mcm, with the colder weather driving additional heating demand. Langeled nominations are improving on earlier in the week, at 45mcm. |
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Prices on the NBP this morning are roughly in line with last nights close with the market moving lower yesterday off the back of the Norwegian outage at Nyhamna coming to an end. The front month May-24 contract is currently pricing at 78.95p/th, 0.4p/th higher than the previous session. The system is 16mcm long at time of writing, with total demand at 187mcm, 63mcm below seasonal normal. Langeled nominations have ramped up to 64mcm, 19mcm higher day on day. Storage withdrawals have also decreased, at just 13mcm today, 26mcm lower day on day. Temperatures are 2-3 degrees below seasonal normal today with forecasts showing a move back up to seasonal normal over Friday and Saturday. |
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Prices have rallied on the NBP this morning following reports of an Israeli attack on Iran, which the market has been anticipating since last weekend’s escalations. However, since then we have seen a strong sell off. The front month May-24 contract initially reached as high as 84.50p/th first thing morning but has since dropped to 80p/th at time of writing. The lack of severity in the attacked from Israel appears to be driving the sell off, coupled with some warmer weather runs for the back end of April. The UK system is 20mcm long, with total demand at 171mcm, 74mcm below seasonal normal. The system is comfortably today on stronger Norwegian imports and a decrease in weather related demand following a brief uptick in wind generation and temperatures today. |
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